Early 2011 Thoughts about the Google Lunar X PRIZE

Well, some practical joker has gone and turned the calendar over to 2011. Surely that can't actually, be the year, can it? Even more unbelievably, we're just crossing the 40% mark in terms of calendar days in the Google Lunar X PRIZE--wow!

As we cross those somehow unbelievable milestones, I can honestly say that I have never been more confident that the Google Lunar X PRIZE will be won than I am today. And that's a pretty great thing to feel, 40% of the way in.

Part of this enthusiasm is born from the massive flurry of new registration applications we received right at the deadline. We're still processing them, so I can't yet tell you how many teams we'll have when all is said and done (soon, my friends, soon), but I'll put it this way: my own private guess in our little guess-the-number-of-teams contest would have been well under, just like many of the actual guesses sent in by our readers. I can also tell you that in addition to many of the "Letter of Intent to Compete" signatories referenced in this December blog post, we also heard from multiple others, including groups that were totally off our radar screen until the very last days of 2010. I'm extremely excited about our final roster of teams, to put it mildly.

Another part of my enthusiasm came after glancing at Michael Doornbos / Evadot's totally unofficial but nevertheless very interesting Google Lunar X PRIZE Scorecard (snapshot of the scorecard at right, but you should really click through to view all of the details and, even better, leave some thoughts and suggestions for Michael). Now, obviously, I'm operating from an overlapping but fairly different set of data then Michael is, so you can imagine that if I had a scorecard, it would look fairly different. But it would have at least one major feature in common: instead of a solitary front runner, there would be a big group--maybe eight or so teams--clustered in a pack towards the front, with the others not even all that far behind. That's hugely important, as it means that even 40% of the way into this competition, we still have a very large number of branches of our 'evolutionary tree' that are thriving. That's a cause for celebration, in my book.

As a closing note, I'll recommend to you all: check out Phil Stooke's awesome map of proposed Google Lunar X PRIZE landing sites, and read Brice Russ's Google Lunar X PRIZE update at Ars Technica. They are both worthy of your time! And lastly, a little suggestion--don't forget about the Flight Plan, our Tumblr micro-blog, which has been a bit more active than the Launch Pad lately.

Roundup: Lunar Prize Site Map, COMPETES Signed, Space Art, Masten Mud, More

Google Lunar X PRIZE Roundup #39 - Luna C/I

Google Lunar X PRIZE Proposed Landing Sites - EvaDot

LaserMotive: 2010 Year In Review - LaserMotive

COMPETES Passage Keeps America's Leadership on Target - The President signed the America COMPETES Act yesterday, so the Office of Science and Technology Policy reposted comments by John Holdren made when it passed Congress.  Here's an excerpt:

And in a great boost for the cause of generating novel solutions to tough national problems, COMPETES gives every department and agency the authority to conduct prize competitions. Prizes and challenges have an excellent track record of accelerating problem-solving by tapping America’s top talent and best expertise wherever it may lie. The Administration has supported this approach as part of its all-hands-on-deck approach to stimulating innovation, and under COMPETES we can expect a further blossoming of new ideas from citizen solvers across the land.

Challenge.gov in long tradition of giving prizes for solutions to tough problems - The Washington Post

@LRO_NASA: Suuuper cute. Winners of space science art contest for grades 2-4. http://fb.me/CEDznEpZ

@genomics_xprize: Genomics X PRIZE Advisor, Leroy Hood wins $500k prize 4 "for automating DNA sequencing that revolutionized biomedicine" http://bit.ly/dROa4E

Crawley wins National Academy of Engineering’s Gordon Prize - MIT News

It looks like my college dorm's field after a Rugby game:

@MdlRcktScientst: Getting ready to attempt a hold-down test. In the mud. Awesome. http://twitpic.com/3n2w6q

@ConradAwards: Conrad Foundation and Constellation Energy Group give students a new chance to win http://pitch.pe/114727